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Wall Street vets say an attack on blue states could start a chain reaction in the housing market. Cohan

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a Ponzi scheme, a Wall Street executive told me, dismissing the idea that a multi trillion dollar tax cut for multinational corporations would trickle down throughout the economy and also pay for itself. It a view that widely shared among the bankers, hedge fund managers, traders, and canada goose outlet hong kong quants whose job it is to determine, with Vulcan accuracy, how the Republican tax bill that passed the House yesterday will actually affect the markets. this be the first tax cut in American history that actually results in a recession? the executive asked.

It a great question. And the House plan provides plenty to be worried about in that regard. Take, for instance, the proposed elimination of the deductibility of state and local taxes. That is obviously a cynical, politically motivated ploy on Donald Trump part to penalize voters who didn vote for him (for good reason) in high tax blue states, such as New York and California, and to give a benefit to the red state voters who did vote for him. (I get it, elections have consequences.) Eliminating the deductibility of state and local taxes is canada goose outlet winnipeg an incredibly divisive plan. a transfer to red state wealthy guys, said the executive, who lives in a blue state.

canada goose black friday sale Worse, he says, it could lead to another housing crisis, just as the last one is (or should be) still fresh in our collective memories. Here his thinking (which is hard to refute): Since, generally speaking, one of the largest state taxes is on canada goose stockists uk property home the federal tax deduction for state property taxes will inevitably cause the canada goose outlet woodbury cost of homeownership in states with high property taxes to go up. It follows, logically, that if the annual cost of home ownership goes up, then the value of the home is for most people their single most valuable asset go down. The National Association of Realtors commissioned a recent study that predicted that the elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes could result in a decrease in home valuations of between 10 percent and 17 percent. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose clearance That would wipe out a massive amount of homeowner equity, with the usually expected consequences: the sick feeling that comes from knowing that suddenly you are poorer, which can then lead to lower canada goose womens outlet consumer spending, canada goose clothing uk kicking off a recession. Furthermore, if the value of homes goes down, later whatever equity has been built up in those homes will also go down, and the ability to unlock that equity home equity loans or reverse mortgages also decrease. Lower home values could also lead canada goose parka outlet uk to problems the government sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that have guaranteed some home mortgages, which are secured by homes worth materially less. canada goose clearance

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Wait, there more. The House plan, of course, does not pay for itself. According to the non partisan Congressional Budget Office, it will add around $1.5 trillion to the federal debt over 10 years. That apparently ain happening. The federal government is the single largest borrower in our country. With interest rates heading up along with the federal debt, that will mean higher interest expense and canada goose outlet sale higher annual budget deficits.

canada goose store Oh no it won say the trickle down economic hawks such as Cohn and Mnuchin, aided and abetted by the tired Reagan era economists Stephen Moore and Larry Kudlow. growth on a much higher trajectory, generating an additional $1 trillion in tax receipts over 10 years to partially offset the cost of the tax cuts. of $18.6 trillion. would have to grow on the order of canada goose outlet us another 2.5 percent per year, compounded for 10 years. In other words, the United States economy would have to increase at around 5 percent annually for the next 10 years, in line with emerging economic powerhouses China and India. Guess what sports fans? That not happening, especially in an economy that has already supposedly been benefiting from absurdly low interest rates for close to a decade, and that is already at or near full structural employment. canada goose outlet boston canada goose store

Sure, there are some goodies in it for Wall Street clients, which might end up being good for them, too. confidence. Talk about trickle down! The reality is that few corporations have been paying taxes at a 35 canada goose outlet los angeles percent rate, so lowering them to 20 percent may not change their bottom lines much. Furthermore, the expected buy canada goose uk corporate tax cut has already likely been baked into the stock market, which is trading at or near all time highs. In fact, as details of the tax plan have come out in recent days, the stock market has pulled back a bit. I guess that it has found its highs for the time being.

Canada Goose sale Then there is the tax holiday that corporations will get if they choose to repatriate some or all of the $2 trillion or so held overseas. They didn fall for it. He asked them for a show of hands as to whether the tax plan would lead to higher corporate investment. canada goose outlet location A few hands went up, but fewer than Cohn had expected. aren the other hands up? he asked. They not up, Gary, because it evident to them, and many of the rest of us, that trickle down economics is a myth. Canada Goose sale

canadian goose jacket If Cohn were more honest, he admit what most chief executives are saying privately, and some publicly. of publicly traded software company Brightcove wrote last week. argument fundamentally disregards everything we know about how companies actually decide to hire and how much to pay their employees. (and in previous roles) I was involved in hiring and determining salaries for thousands of people over 25 years. From real world experience, I can tell you that tax rates literally never came up in any discussion about hiring or pay levels. Occam razor, he added, is the best rubric to predict what will happen when you give investors more money in the absence of increased demand: they keep it. canadian goose jacket

Howard Schultz, the billionaire executive chairman of Starbucks, was blunter: is not tax reform, he said at the DealBook conference in New York last week. is a tax cut. It fool gold that he wants to take the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent. For what purpose? Is that profit going to go back to the people who need it the most? Is that going to help half the country that doesn have $400 in their bank account for a crisis? No. tax plan to reward them for passing those savings along to their employees, who Paul Ryan has estimated would get an average $4,000 raise (over a decade) as a result of corporate largesse. The labour market has tightened considerably unemployment rate is at a 15 year low the stock market is starting to level off. The word on the street, though, isn that higher corporate profits will lead to higher wages; instead, it all about buybacks: Goldman says stock buybacks will hit $590 billion in 2018, while Merrill Lynch predicts half of all repatriated cash would go to repurchases or acquisitions. It a sugar high that might extend the market rally temporarily but will deepen the rot in our economic cavity.

There is one bright spot in the Trump tax plan for Wall Streeters: the proposed elimination of the estate tax. While the estate tax snags only around 5,000 estates per year applies to properties with a fair market value higher than $11 million, for married couples the estate tax ultimately will be of some benefit to bankers, traders, and executives, many of whom do have a net worth canada goose outlet las vegas in excess of $11 million. great, my Wall Street friend said, I be dead by then.

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